Around the world, people are increasingly fleeing their homes due to the effects of climate change. An innovative new report from the C40 Cities coalition and the Mayors Migration Council studied the impact of climate change on internal migration for ten cities across three continents.   

Environmental Distress: Despite the vast geographic distances and degrees of climate related disasters, all 10 of these cities will need to prepare for significant inward migration over the next 25 years. 

The study looked at a climate migration scenario where the world fails to meet the 2015 Paris Accords goal of keeping global heating under 1.5 °C. And at this point, the world is not on track to meet those goals. 

• In Pakistan, Karachi could receive as many as 2.3 million domestic climate migrants by 2050.
• Cities like Bogotá will see 600,000 climate migrants, in a city of 8 million that’s already rationing water with no end in sight. 
• Extreme flooding in Bangladesh, will bring 3.1 million climate migrants to Dhaka, a city with a current population of 12 million.  

This research looked into the different types of climate impacts that will force migrants to cities. Some of these impacts included: reduced crop yields, sea levels rising and increased extreme weather like floods and wildfires. These criss-crossing disasters and reduced quality of life factors all drive climate migration to cities. 

Climate Migrant Future 

“Green-collar work”, jobs focused on sustainability and the renewable energy sector, combined with climate migration will put 800 million jobs at risk, according to a 2022 Deloitte study. Globally migrants are working in critical and essential jobs that include construction, waste management and transport. All of which are facing upheavals and changes as the world shifts to more sustainable models and demographic shifts to cities. 

• A report by the World Bank, co-authored by Columbia geographer Alex de Sherbinin predicts that more than 200 million people in low-income countries may migrate because of climate change by 2050. 

While much of the current news focuses on the “less developed”, Global South’s trials and upheaval due to climate change, the truth is that climate migration has already started in the United States. 

Internal Climate Migrants in the United States 

By the mid-century climate scientists expect large swathes of the West will be turning into desert. The Great Plains and American South will have far more severe heat waves and oscillating periods of drought and floods. 

• Humidity and heat in the summertime will drastically reduce farming production. 
• Climate models suggest the heat index will routinely exceed 130 degrees Fahrenheit in many southern states, a level rarely observed and life-threatening for even the healthiest people at rest. 

Already the US government is actively encouraging residents to leave vulnerable areas. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has started to acquire properties under flooding duress, which are now being restored to marshes and wetlands to help protect against future storms. 

• Sociologist Jeremy Porter co-authored a Nature study revealing that 3.2 million people in the U.S. have already relocated to escape flooding in the past two decades.

Old industrial cities in the North, like Duluth and Burlington are promoting themselves as “climate havens” to attract newcomers and boost their economies.  

Alchemist City View: Extreme weather events are becoming unfortunate seasonal occurrences. Hurricane Helene’s destructive aftermath has shown us the alarming devastation of the climate crisis.